Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.969680 1.188338 1.422964 1.691238 1.987388 2.302387 2.660863
2024-10-06 0.671378 0.961364 1.298724 1.710693 2.191500 2.727237 3.361931
2024-10-13 0.508249 0.824390 1.215423 1.715280 2.320101 3.013470 3.854429
2024-10-20 0.374833 0.696999 1.121768 1.689342 2.399212 3.233629 4.266079
2024-10-27 0.335432 0.685151 1.166028 1.826436 2.668795 3.673293 4.930197
2024-11-03 0.298033 0.668193 1.198050 1.944200 2.912643 4.081993 5.559241
2024-11-10 0.266344 0.653354 1.228491 2.056763 3.148203 4.480179 6.176477
2024-11-17 0.239504 0.641073 1.259191 2.167540 3.380568 4.874644 6.790537
2024-11-24 0.200737 0.600952 1.244321 2.212714 3.526027 5.160683 7.273149
2024-12-01 0.159802 0.547989 1.204176 2.218323 3.616626 5.376405 7.668962
2024-12-08 0.113629 0.472139 1.119995 2.154991 3.610959 5.467520 7.909089
2024-12-15 0.075944 0.400462 1.033407 2.080947 3.585264 5.528942 8.109055
2024-12-22 0.051440 0.351904 0.984092 2.065123 3.646347 5.713044 8.478579
2024-12-29 0.037003 0.323867 0.968037 2.098914 3.776970 5.989668 8.968652
2025-01-05 0.023570 0.288762 0.933480 2.099917 3.858594 6.200091 9.373312
2025-01-12 0.012419 0.248855 0.883413 2.072112 3.896625 6.351643 9.702572
2025-01-19 0.012204 0.262808 0.944144 2.226029 4.197875 6.854549 10.483844
2025-01-26 0.011028 0.270397 0.991546 2.358444 4.468881 7.318463 11.216952
2025-02-02 0.009702 0.276048 1.034814 2.484429 4.731373 7.772218 11.938723
2025-02-09 0.008432 0.280987 1.076522 2.608210 4.991448 8.223897 12.659468
2025-02-16 0.005279 0.266790 1.074917 2.658589 5.143975 8.531716 13.195672
2025-02-23 0.002294 0.242819 1.048362 2.664845 5.230542 8.750368 13.616780
2025-03-02 0.000235 0.203434 0.979518 2.594198 5.200255 8.809234 13.829627